26-4-2025 – A colossal $8.05 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts reached their expiry today, setting the stage for potential turbulence in the cryptocurrency markets. According to data from Deribit, Bitcoin options dominated this figure, comprising $7.24 billion, while Ethereum options contributed $808 million. Such a significant expiry often prompts traders to recalibrate their positions, which can spark abrupt price swings in the short term.
The market’s mood is far from uniform. Bitcoin, currently trading at $93,471, sits comfortably above its maximum pain point of $86,000—a level where the most options contracts would settle out of the money, causing losses for traders. Ethereum, however, lingers below its pain point of $1,900, with its price hovering around $1,764. Deribit analysts observed a stark contrast in trader positioning: “Bitcoin rides above its max pain, while Ethereum languishes below, reflecting a market pulling in opposite directions.”
Open interest paints a vivid picture of trader expectations. For Bitcoin, contracts are heavily concentrated between $80,000 and $90,000, while Ethereum’s open interest clusters between $1,800 and $2,000. These zones suggest traders are bracing for movement within these ranges, with expiry periods often acting like a gravitational pull towards the maximum pain price. Yet, the divergent paths of Bitcoin and Ethereum signal mixed market dynamics, leaving traders to navigate a complex landscape.
Despite the looming threat of short-term volatility, a buoyant long-term outlook persists, particularly for Bitcoin. Traders are leveraging cash-secured puts to amass premiums while eyeing opportunities to buy at lower prices, a strategy Deribit describes as a hallmark of sustained optimism. Interest in Bitcoin call options for April to June 2025 expiries is also surging, with strike prices ranging from $90,000 to $110,000, and significant open interest at the $100,000 mark. This suggests a strong belief in Bitcoin’s upward trajectory over the coming months, though prediction markets like Polymarket temper expectations, assigning just a 16% chance of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 by April.
Ethereum’s expiry included a hefty 458,926 contracts, a sharp rise from last week’s 177,130, potentially amplifying price pressures as traders adjust their strategies. The put-to-call ratio further underscores the divergence: Bitcoin’s ratio of 0.56 indicates a tilt towards bullish call options, while Ethereum’s near-parity ratio of 1.01 reflects a more balanced, cautious stance.
Adding to the volatility are external forces, including activity around Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The cumulative delta across Bitcoin and ETF options has soared to $9 billion, amplifying price sensitivity. Market makers, scrambling to hedge their positions, may exacerbate short-term fluctuations. Deribit’s Tony Stewart noted that much of the recent market activity stems from rebalancing existing positions rather than fresh capital inflows, a sign of cautious recalibration rather than bold new bets.
Broader financial currents also play a role. The reintroduction of tariff policies under Donald Trump has bolstered stability in traditional markets, subtly diverting investor interest from cryptocurrencies and gold. This shift could temper crypto volatility in the near term, even as traders remain poised for opportunities.
