24-9-2025 – Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, predicts Bitcoin could soar to $3.4 million by 2028 if a second Trump administration adopts yield curve control (YCC) and triggers massive monetary expansion, as outlined in his recent essay. Hayes ties this bold projection to a potential $15.2 trillion in new credit, driven by Federal Reserve purchases of Treasury debt to cap bond yields.
Drawing on historical precedent, Hayes compares the scenario to the Fed’s actions during World War II, when it fixed yields to fund spending. He suggests Trump’s team, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, could manipulate the yield curve to channel credit into defense and industry, inflating the Fed’s balance sheet. Hayes’ model, based on Bitcoin’s 0.19% price increase per dollar of credit growth during the COVID-19 stimulus, calculates the $3.4 million target from this credit surge.
He emphasizes this as a directional bet, not a precise forecast, noting Bitcoin thrives amid fiat devaluation. The prediction hinges on declining foreign demand for U.S. debt, forcing the Fed to absorb over 50% of new issuance. Hayes argues Bitcoin’s scarcity makes it a prime hedge against such monetary excess, outpacing traditional assets. While some analysts question the feasibility of his price target, they acknowledge the bullish implications of unchecked money printing.
