14-8-2025 – Bitcoin’s price has surged to a new all-time high, yet the Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) indicates the market is not overheated, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. The BPT, a metric assessing market momentum, stands at a moderately high 2.56, below its recent peak of 3.57, suggesting Bitcoin remains in a “warm” phase with room for growth. This analysis was first reported by ChainCatcher.
The current price holds above the four-year moving average and its +2σ threshold, reinforcing a sustained bullish trend. Unlike previous cycles where high BPT levels signaled overvaluation, the current reading and an average realized profit-and-loss ratio point to lower risk compared to past overheated markets. However, Adler cautions that a typical pullback within this uptrend remains a key risk, as short-term volatility could trigger profit-taking. Bitcoin’s rally aligns with increased institutional interest and favorable market conditions, including spot-driven demand and reduced leverage compared to prior peaks.
A BPT reading above 3.0 would indicate a “late-stage” market, potentially signaling heightened volatility or a nearing peak. For now, on-chain data supports continued upward momentum, with key support levels at $113,000 and $101,000, per CryptoQuant’s analysis. Traders should watch for BPT movements above 3.0 and monitor support levels to gauge the rally’s sustainability
