1-8-2025 – Bitcoin is entering a historically challenging period as August and September have shown price declines in eight of the past 12 years, according to data from Lookonchain. This trend, with a 67% probability of a drop, reflects seasonal weakness based on monthly return analysis spanning 2013 to 2025.
The pattern, detailed in CoinGlass data, shows average returns of +1.59% in August and -3.77% in September, with significant losses in years like 2018 (-2.7% and -5.8%) and 2022 (-13.8% and -3.12%). This contrasts with stronger performances in later months, such as October’s +21.89% average.
The trend may stem from reduced market activity and fading policy catalysts during late summer, impacting investor sentiment. The current year’s context, with Bitcoin up 8.13% in July, adds intrigue as markets assess whether the historical trend will hold. Investors are closely monitoring this period, especially given 2025’s post-halving dynamics.
