14-8-2025 – Bitcoin’s net unrealized profit and loss indicator suggests the market may be approaching its third major peak of this cycle, with most cryptocurrencies now in profitable territory that historically triggers significant sell-offs, according to CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei_dent. The NUPL metric, which measures aggregate market profitability, has exceeded the critical threshold where profit-taking typically accelerates.
Historical data shows market cycle tops coincided with NUPL peaks in 2017 and twice during 2021’s bull run, making the current formation potentially significant for timing major market moves. However, this cycle exhibits markedly different characteristics compared to previous runs, with institutional ETF inflows creating smoother volatility patterns and more sustained price action rather than explosive parabolic moves.
The analyst notes that while institutional participation has stabilized markets, each successive rally shows diminishing magnitude—a pattern suggesting extended but less dramatic bull market conditions. This dynamic points toward a longer-duration cycle with reduced probability of rapid short-term surges, as traditional retail-driven FOMO gives way to measured institutional accumulation strategies.
Market participants will watch whether NUPL levels trigger the anticipated profit-taking wave or if institutional demand continues absorbing selling pressure at these elevated profitability thresholds.
