25-7-2025 – CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju has publicly declared the traditional “Bitcoin cycle theory” obsolete and issued a rare apology for his widely-criticized April prediction that the bull market had ended, a call that cost followers potential gains of 54%.
Ju’s controversial April assessment argued that Bitcoin had entered a bear market near $80,000, claiming that even major institutional purchases couldn’t drive prices higher due to overwhelming selling pressure. The prominent analyst predicted Bitcoin was unlikely to rally in the short term. Instead, the cryptocurrency surged to $112,000 by May and reached new all-time highs of $123,236 in July, leaving those who followed his guidance on the sidelines during a massive rally.
“I sincerely apologize if my prediction impacted your investment. I’ll be more careful with forecasts and focus on providing data-driven insights,” Ju stated, acknowledging his analytical framework failed to account for fundamental market structure changes. He now argues that traditional cycle patterns no longer apply due to institutional adoption fundamentally altering Bitcoin’s market dynamics.
The analyst explains that previous cycles relied on whales accumulating during bear markets and selling to retail investors during bull runs. However, he now observes “old whales sell to new long-term whales” such as corporate treasury strategies, creating a different market structure where “trading feels pointless” due to holders vastly outnumbering active traders.
Ju’s admission highlights growing debate among analysts about Bitcoin’s evolving market patterns. While he declares cycle theory dead, Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer recently noted that Bitcoin continues following its four-year cycle “very closely,” suggesting the analytical community remains divided on whether institutional adoption has truly broken traditional market patterns.
